Enviro-BC Weather Forecasting Services

Brett Anderson, a forecaster for Accuweather, has come up with a prediction for various parts of Canada. Most of the forecasts are driven by the expected moderate to strong El Niño episode that is scheduled for this winter. Check out his summary at Accuweather’s website:

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=Anderson&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Anderson/archives/2009/09/model_update_through_the_winter.asp

Certainly not what the Olympic organizers are hoping for. Looks like above normal temperatures and fairly dry January and February in BC. Hopefully there will still be enough snowstorms so they won’t have to resort to making artificial snow.

‘Weather of British Columbia’ a Lone Pine Publishing book co-authored by myself and Bill Hume is back from the printers. It is available at Chapters now and should be arriving at other book stores throughout BC in the near future. Please let me know what you think of it.

http://www.chapters.indigo.ca/books/Weather-of-British-Columbia-Rob-Pigott/9781551056067-item.html

Did you catch the article in the Province last week predicting a Sahara desert-like landscape in the BC Southern Interior by the year 2050?  To me it reads more like a script for a Hollywood disaster movie than a realistic scenario for what climate change might create for us by mid century.

Phrases like ‘dust bowls scour the Okanagan’ and ‘rain comes in hurricane torrents….hills slide down on homes and water wells are poisoned’ certainly get your attention.

The Province article is based on a provincial government-commissioned research paper, Climate Change and Health in British Columbia that was released in November 2008. The purpose of the paper is to ‘outline how climate change is likely to affect the health of British Columbians and to suggest a way forward to promote health and policy research, and adaptation to these changes.’ 

The paper proposes research in how climate change will directly and indirectly affect the health of British Columbians. Direct threats include loss of life due to an increase in frequency of heat waves, floods, severe storms and forest fires. The longer term indirect results of climate change could result in a higher incidence of cardio-vascular, cancer, diabetes, West Nile and mental health illnesses.

According to the study, rural and aboriginal communities will likely face more difficulties dealing with the effects of climate change. For example, the depletion of forests due to bug kill and the danger of fires from dead trees will likely be a growing problem in the years to come affecting both health and livelihoods.

It isn’t all doom and gloom. One positive note – ‘With a moderate climate change scenario, by 2020, it may be possible to grow an increasing range of crops along the Fraser Valley as far north as Prince George. By 2050 these crops may be growable in the Peace River region.’

Beyond the scaremongering there are some recent events in the province that suggest there are going to be some major challenges ahead.

Many experts argue that the up to 90 percent loss of interior pine forests is a direct result of climate change. There is a high likelihood of similar bug damage to other trees especially conifers in the years to come. Fires aided by abundant fuel in the form of needles and other debris beneath the dead trees have already scorched thousands of hectares. There will definitely be more of these virtually uncontrollable fires in the future.

The predicted longer term health problems associated with climate change are open to conjecture. I feel that it is a positive step though, that the government is studying the issue to hopefully minimize the effects.

Quiet with potential. This phrase describes the current wildfire situation across the province. There have been some notable exceptions – the large and uncontained fire at Tyaughton Lake west of Lillooet and the huge blaze northwest of Liard Hot Springs near the Yukon border. Elsewhere, the wait is on for fire starts from lightning strikes or careless fire handlers in the woods.

Earlier in the spring, some homes were lost in the 70 and 100 Mile house areas after gusty winds caused deliberately set fires in overwinter grass to rage into pine beetle damaged trees. The sunny and warm weather over the past couple of weeks ‘greened-up’ the land surface. However, with little if any recent rainfall, most of the province is rapidly drying. Fire hazards are starting to reach high to extreme levels.

In most springs, the prevailing west to southwest flow aloft brings a succession of ridges and troughs across the province. The showers associated with the troughs keep the fire hazard rating at a reasonable level. This year, a persistent ‘blocking ridge pattern’ has steered frontal systems well away from the province. Eastern areas, closer to disturbances moving through Alberta, have had some rain, but the rest of BC has been considerably warmer and drier than average.

In the Shuswap, the danger rating has reached the extreme category in the past week.  Only a trace of rain has fallen since May 20^th. There are some showers in the forecast in the next few days but these should be the hit and miss variety. There is a chance of thundershowers with local heavy downpours that could provide some relief. However the lightning strikes will certainly start a few fires.

The current long range forecast for the province calls for mostly sunny and warm weather in the north with some cloud and a threat of scattered showers or thundershowers, but staying mainly dry in the south. Unless there is a pattern shift in the next few weeks bringing more extensive rains, fires are inevitable and it could be a very challenging summer for fire crews.

I received some feedback from my request for favourite weather movies. Tom Crowley, sent me a lengthy list of titles with Jean de Florette and the sequel Manon of the Spring his top picks. He writes “For the sheer scope of human tragedy and happy ending, involving the importance of rain and groundwater in Provence, Gerard Depardieu and Yves Montand do an amazing job as the leads, with rain and overall water-availability being utterly dominant in the lives of the simple, French country agriculturists.”

Another movie Tom likes with Canadian content: My Winnipeg – “Existentially harsh winters shape lives and moods and aspirations at Portage and Main”.  Finally, a movie featuring storms on the BC Coast:  Far from Home: The Adventures of Yellow Dog – “A survival epic of a boy and dog on the B.C. coast.”

I was glad to see Groundhog Day made the list, a personal favourite of mine. Thanks a lot Tom for your movie selections and especially your insightful descriptions! I’m eagerly looking forward to renting some of them.

I must have seen it twenty times or more. Even watching it today, it still has a magical quality for me that no other movie matches. I love the scene where the tornado finally releases the house and it crashes down on the wicked witch of the east. Then Dorothy opens the door and suddenly the dull grey Kansas sky is transformed into a kaleidoscope of colours in the land of Oz. Of course I am talking about the Wizard of Oz, not only a great movie for the special effects, acting and musical numbers, but in my opinion one of the better weather movies ever made. Considering that it was made in 1939, the tornado snaking around in the distance seems very real as people scramble for safety.

There have been many movies over the years that have had weather as a central theme, or have scenes that are etched in our minds involving weather phenomenon. There have been quite a few disaster epics such as The Perfect Storm, Twister and The Day After Tomorrow. With a major dose of ‘suspension of belief’, meteorologically speaking, it is still possible to go along for the ride and be entertained by them. Twister with its flying bovines and multi close calls with seemingly vengeful tornadoes (I think I detected one growling), is still a lot of fun. The special effects in The Day After Tomorrow are incredible especially the ‘flash freeze’ sequence. For me, The Perfect Storm is the best of the three from a factual point of view, as it is based on a real event.

Action or disaster types haven’t cornered the market on movies with significant weather content. Considered the best musical ever made, Singin’ in the Rain, with love stricken Gene Kelly bouncing around an illuminated city street totally oblivious to the pouring rain, is one of the most famous scenes in movie making history. Comedy is no exception. Charlie Chaplin, in The Gold Rush, forever immortalized the effect of the long and bitter Yukon winter. The funniest scene for me shows one Klondiker pursuing another who in his deluded mind has turned into a chicken! Ice Age, with its witty dialogue and interesting animated characters would be a favourite even if it didn’t have weather or in this case climate change as a theme.

While I was making a list the other day of all the movies that involve weather in one way or another, I thought it would be a great idea to find out what others think are their favourites. I would be interested in hearing your choices that involve weather in a central or secondary way. If you like, let me know in a few sentences what it is you like about the weather sequences and how they add to the overall enjoyment of the movie. Please respond to this post or email me at envirobc@telus.net

4o centimetres of new snow at Silver Star mountain yesterday! Notice the date at the top of the picture. This coincides with a scheduled reopening of  the x-country area at Sovereign Lake this week – http://www.sovereignlake.com/weather.html

Snow pillow, doesn’t sound like a comfortable place for your head to get a good night’s sleep. If you are concerned about water though, a favourable snow pillow reading might help you to rest a little easier.

‘Rows and flows of angel hair
And ice cream castles in the air
And feather canyons everywhere
I’ve looked at clouds that way

But now they only block the sun
They rain and they snow on everyone
So many things I would have done
But clouds got in my way’

These are the first two verses of Joni Mitchell’s ‘Both Sides Now’. I remember how moved I was back in 1967 when I first heard these lines. Weather lover and pseudo-hippie that I was at the time, I was blown away by this beautiful poetic song about clouds and weather sung by this groovy far-out chick!

I now realize the song has a lot more depth to it i.e. the incomprehensibility of our changing attitudes towards not only clouds and weather but love and life as well. I think I’ll stick to a discussion of clouds though; the other subjects are a bit complex for the space I have in this column.

There is a lot of beauty in clouds that many people only notice when there is a spectacular sunrise or sunset. In the summer we have ‘ice cream castles in the air’ in the form of building cumulus clouds that are constantly changing in shape and colour. I imagine ‘rows and flows of angel hair’ to be the thin and wispy streaks of cirrus cloud that often foretell the approach of Pacific frontal systems.

There are many other forms of clouds that appear at different times of the year. One of them created by mountain waves called altocumulus lenticularis, possibly influenced the art work of Emily Carr and Vincent Van Gogh. Their landscapes often show swirling multicoloured lens shape clouds that are unique to this type.

Another one, called mammatus is not really a cloud at all but forms in pouches caused by downdrafts under thunderheads in the summer months. These can be quite spectacular if the sun hits them just right near sunset. I remember on my basic weather course in Ottawa, to reinforce our ability to detect this cloud, they showed us a slide of a Playboy Playmate! In case you haven’t figured it out, mammatus is the Latin word for breast.

Last winter there was quite a bit of valley cloud in the Shuswap, not really the stuff of poetry and dreams. On some days it was less than a thousand feet thick but it can still feel rather oppressive especially when it lasts for days on end. For a different perspective though, take a drive up to Silver Star Resort. and after breaking through to blue skies, stop and have a look backward at the undulating sunlit sea of cloud stretching off into the distance. Definitely a way to rid yourself of the Winter blues.

So in spite of the words in the song, clouds do not have to get in your way. On every day of the year, excluding the clear ones that are quite rare, there are clouds worth viewing. With the right attitude, there is something to appreciate even on the darkest and greyest of days.

I gave up smoking on August 24^th, 1969. As I flicked my last butt into the sea from the stern of the Alexander Mackenzie lighthouse supply ship, I was committed to at least a month of no cigarettes. I had tried to quit a few times in the past year but the habit was just too strong. Now I was being deposited on a tiny island at the southern tip of the Queen Charlotte Islands; total population several thousand sea birds, a hundred or so seals and two smoke free humans. No towns, no roads, no stores, in other words absolutely no access to tobacco.

For the next year, Cape St. James was my home as well as my work place. The three of us rotated twelve hour shifts, observed weather, monitored the light beacon and took turns going totally bonkers. The nightshifts were the toughest when you were the only one working as the others lay fast asleep on the lower part of the island. One guy had a recurring hallucination of a monster rising out of the sea and staring back at him whenever he looked out the window to check the weather. If you saw John Lithgow in Twilight Zone: The Movie, you will have some idea of how this unnerved him.

My night of insanity happened one night when I went outside to check the temperature readings. I had this strange feeling that I wasn’t alone. I opened up the door of the Stevenson screen, wrote down the numbers and suddenly looked up to see these huge yellow eyes gazing back at me. Close to soiling my Jockeys, I leaped back and watched an owl flapping its massive wings and disappear into the gloom.

I remember numerous pointless arguments. One went on for hours about whether the precipitation pelting the windows was mixed with snow or not. A heated discussion a few years prior to my time there, ended with the officer in charge out cold on the floor. The perpetrator was removed by helicopter on the next supply run.

The one thing we lived for, other than deciding which sports car to buy after our sentence was concluded, was to take out the life boat in search of glass balls used for net floatation on Japanese trawlers. Intended to be used for emergencies, the temptation was just too great after a month or two, to jump in the boat in search of Oriental treasure. Two of my fellow castaways were caught in a storm on one trip and by the time they got back to the island, the constant bashing of the waves had reduced the glass balls to small shards.

Cape St. James has had a long history serving as a lighthouse and weather station. Established in 1914, it has no doubt saved many lives over the years. Ships used it as a landmark, seeking refuge from Pacific storms and the relative safety of Hecate Strait. During the Second World War, over a hundred servicemen had tours of duty on the island after the Japanese torpedo attack near Estevan Point, raised awareness of the possibility of an all out attack on the West Coast of Canada.

In 1992, the last manned observations were taken and except for the auto weather station, light beacon and radio antennas, the sea birds and seals were pleased to have the island once again to themselves. By the way, I never smoked again.

The huge amount of snow deposited each year on BC interior mountains is great for winter recreation. World renowned waist high powder and the thrill of travelling to remote parts of the province attract thousands of back country skiers and snowmobilers each year. The high elevation snow is only a short trip away by helicopter or via the newer high tech snowmobiles.

The pursuit of the ultimate adventure does come with some risks though. Avalanches are always a threat especially when the snow is unstable and the slightest disturbance is enough to trigger a slide. In the majority of cases, in fact over 80 percent of the time, people caught in avalanches survive.

Unfortunately some slides are so massive, there is no escape. An average of fourteen people each year are killed by slides in Canada, mostly in southern BC, in a triangle running from Vancouver Island to Pincher Creek to Hinton Alberta.

A typical weather pattern that causes a high risk for avalanches starts with cold temperatures producing a slippery hoar frost layer on the snow. Then when a flood of warm moist air brings a period of heavy snow, the weight of the top layer can easily slide on the icy surface below.

The winter of 2008-09 has seen several of these cold to warm cycles making the snow very unstable. The snowpack has many buried hoar frost surfaces with snow layers sandwiched between.

Twenty-three deaths have been reported in BC this winter, eighteen of them were riding snowmobiles. The total for snowmobilers is much higher than the previous mark of nine deaths in 2002-03. The most tragic accident occurred at the end of December 2008 when several avalanches buried a large group of sledders near Fernie. Eight men, all from the nearby town of Sparwood lost their lives.

The Canadian Avalanche Centre, based in Revelstoke is a not-for-profit corporation that serves as a national public avalanche safety organization. Avalanche forecasts are issued throughout the winter season to alert recreationists to the danger level and threat of avalanches. This year there have been periods of high to extreme danger predicted that keep most people out of harm’s way.

Unfortunately many of the incidents have occurred at a lower danger level, between moderate and considerable, when more people venture into the backcountry. The extremely variable and unstable conditions this year make avalanche prediction very difficult and a high level of training and experience is necessary to stay safe. Training courses put on by the Canadian Avalanche Centre provide skiers and sledders with the necessary tools to assess the danger.

As the spring progresses and the snow levels rise to higher elevations, the danger of avalanches will gradually ease. However, even in summer the higher glaciers can still be unstable especially in the afternoons when melting occurs. It is still a good idea to check the Avalanche Centre web site for latest conditions in the mountains and also have a look at the current weather forecast issued for the area.